Market update

Home sales in July (single family, townhouse & condo
combined) were 4.9% lower than June, with a 4.6%
fall in single family and a 7.5% fall in townhouse &
condo sales.

Total sales were down 18.1% from July 2013 with
single family down 18.7% and townhouse & condo
sales down 13.3%. The gap between 2013 and 2014
sales closed opened wider than in June because July
was an unusually strong month last year. Thanks to
the price rises between July 2013 and July 2014, the
drop in total dollars spent on homes was less severe
than the drop in the unit count.
• Total dollars spent on single family homes fell by
13.3% below July 2013.
• Total dollars spent on townhouses & condos fell
by 10.0% below July 2013.
In the sections below we compare July 2014 data
for Maricopa and Pinal County with that for July
2013. We analyze volumes and pricing for 8 different
transaction types as well as the totals. Individual
statistics are also provided in the attached tables by
county and city. This report concentrates on single
family homes but detailed statistics for townhouse/
condo properties are shown in the tables.

Demand

Demand has been much weaker since July 2013
and as yet shows little sign of recovery. Activity by
first time home buyers has been stubbornly and
unusually low and is not compensating for the loss
in strong investor demand that had prevailed from
2009 until July last year.
At the top end of the market sales of single family
homes over $500,000 was flat compared with July
2013. Although flat this was much better than steep
drop for price ranges below $500,000. Sales of single
family homes below $150,000 fell 36%. This fall was
partly caused by the lack of distressed supply, but
mostly by the reduction in demand from investors.
The market over $500,000 was weaker in July than
in June but we still had a sales mix that was heavily
biased towards higher end homes. In addition the
market below $150,000 continued to contract. It is
the relatively low volume of low-priced home sales
that is causing the monthly median sales price as
well as the increase in average price per sq. ft. There
has been very little movement in the values of
individual homes over the past 12 months.
Luxury homes over $500,000 captured a 23% market
share, up from 21% in July 2013. The lowest-priced
homes under $150,000 fell from 14% to 10%. The
mid range has increased its share of spending from
65% to 66%. Although supply has been declining for
the last four months, it is still adequate to meet the
current low level of demand.
Market Summary – Beginning of September 2014
We are pleased to provide our clients with this Monthly Market Update.
This report will provide you with the latest real estate trends.
Our business is built around the concept of educating and providing the personal service that Real Estate Agents and Lenders have
come to depend upon. It is with this philosophy that we offer the W.P. Carey School of

Business to our clients, associates and friends. It
is intended to keep you informed on critical market trends that affect our businesses.Market Update September 2014 Page 3
Changes in Transaction Mix
For single family homes, the substantial changes in
transaction mix between July 2013 and July 2014
are illustrated in the chart below: (Note: ‘Reverted’
homes are excluded from ‘All Sales’.)
Below is a similar chart for townhouse /condo
properties. We note an uptick in the previously very
low level of new construction sales for townhouse/
condos properties.

Supply
Our local Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) had
24,994 active listings on August 1, 2014 across
Greater Phoenix including listings under contract
seeking backup offers. This is a decline of 3.3% since
July 1, but it is 36% more than on August 1, 2013.
11.9% of these active listings already have a signed
contract, typically waiting for the lender’s short sale
approval or some other contingency before they stop
soliciting backup offers. This percentage has fallen
from 18.0% over the last 12 months.
The number of active single family list

 

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